૨૦૧૮ના અંતિમ તબક્કામાં ચાંદી પોતાનો ચળકાટ દાખવે તેવી શક્યતા
બુલિયન

૨૦૧૮ના અંતિમ તબક્કામાં ચાંદી પોતાનો ચળકાટ દાખવે તેવી શક્યતા

Jayant Agro Organics Ltd

લાંબા સમયથી સોનાના પડછાયામાંથી ચાંદી બહાર નીકળી ગઈ છે અને ૨૦૧૭નુ વર્ષ પણ કઈ જુદું ન હતું. પણ હવે ૨૦૧૮ના અંતિમ તબક્કામાં ચાંદી પોતાનો ચળકાટ દાખવે તેવી શક્યતા ઉજાગર થઇ છે. જાગતિક ઉત્પાદન અને ઇન્ડસ્ટ્રીયલ ઉત્પાદન, ઉત્પાદકો અને ગ્રાહકોનો ફુગાવા વૃદ્ધિ તેમજ મજબુત થતું રોકાણકારોનું સેન્ટીમેન્ટ જેવા કારણો ચાંદીની તેજીને હંકારવા તૈયાર છે. રોકાણકારો સોના ચાંદીના માંગ પુરવઠાના ફંડામેન્ટલ્સને હકારાત્મક લેવાનું શરુ કરે તે પહેલા અમેરિકન નાણાનીતિ સામાન્ય સ્વરૂપ ધારણ કરશે, તેવી માન્યતા વચ્ચે ચાંદી ૨૦૧૮ના આરંભમાં ઘટવાની ધારણા છે.

જ્યારે પણ વૈશ્વિક પર્ચેઝિંગ મેનેજર્સ ઇન્ડેક્સ (પીએમઆઈ) વધવાનું શરુ થાય તે સાથે જ ચાંદી સોનાને ઝાંખી પાડવા લાગતી હોય છે. અલબત્ત, મોનિટરી પોલીસી અને મજબુત ડોલર સોનાના ભાવ પર વધુ અસર પાડતા હોય છે, જે ચાંદીના ભાવને નીચે જવાની ફરજ પાડે છે. મૂડીવાદી અર્થવ્યવસ્થાઓ માને છે કે ૨૦૧૮ના અંત ભાગમાં અમેરિકા તેની વ્યાજદર વધારવાની સાયકલ બંધ કરશે અને બધું સર્વસામાન્ય બનવા લાગશે. ૨૦૧૭ના અંતે રોકાણકારોએ તેમના ચાંદીના બુક્સ ઓફ એકાઉન્ટ નકારાત્મક નોંધ સાથે બંધ કરી હતી.
૨૦૧૬નુ વર્ષ ૧૬ ટકાના ભાવ વધારા સાથે બંધ થયા પછી ૨૦૧૭ના વર્ષનો આરંભ ઊંચા આશાવાદ સાથે હકારાત્મક રહી બાકીનો સમય ભાવમાં મોટી ઉથલપાથલનો રહ્યો. સોના કરતા ચાંદના ભાવ દબાણમાં રહેતા ગોલ્ડ સિલ્વર રશિયો પણ વધીને વર્ષાંતે ૭૮.૦૨ રહ્યો હતો, જે મંગળવારે ૭૬.૭૫ હતો. આ રેશિયોની ઐતિહાસિક એવરેજ ૬૦ પોઈન્ટની છે.

જેમ જેમ ૨૦૧૭નુ વર્ષાંત નજીક આવતું ગયું તેમતેમ ભાવ ઘટતા રહ્યા, વર્ષના આરંભથી વર્ષાંતે ભાવ માત્ર બે ટકા જ વૃદ્ધિ દાખવતા હતા. એનાલીસ્ટો ફરી એક વખત એવું માનવા લાગ્યા છે કે ચાંદીની ઓદ્યોગિક માંગ વધશે, જેને લીધે અંતિમ ત્રિમાસિકમાં ચાંદી સોનાને ઝાંખું પાડી તેના પડછાયામાંથી બહાર નીકળી જશે. ગોલ્ડમેન સાસ એક અહેવાલમાં કહે છે કે મજબુત જાગતિક વિકાસ સાથે આપણને મજબુત ઔધ્યોગિક માંગ જોવા મળશે.

ગોલ્ડમેન માને છે કે વર્ષાંતે ચાંદીની ભાવ સરેરાશ ૧૭.૨૦ ડોલર હશે. ચાંદીની તેજી માનતા ગોલ્ડમેન સાસ કઈ એકલા એનાલીસ્ટ નથી. કોમર્ઝબેન્કના કોમોડીટી એનાલીસ્ટ પણ વાર્ષિક સરેરાશ ૧૭.૨૫ ડોલર માને છે. તેઓ પણ માને છે કે ૨૦૧૮ના ત્રીજા ત્રિમાસિકમાં તેજી જોવા મળશે. બેંક કહે છે કે ચાંદીની સપ્લાય ૧ અબજ ઔસ પર સ્થગિત થઇ ગઈ છે. સપ્લાય બાબતે ઘણા એનાલીસ્ટો માને છે કે ભાવ સારા એવા નીચા રહ્યા હોવાથી આ વર્ષે ખાણ કંપનીઓ ઉત્પાદનમાં કાપ મુકશે.

ચાઈનીસ સરકારી મીડિયા જિંગહુએ મંગોલીયાના આંતરિક વિસ્તારોમાં ચાંદીનો મોટો જથ્થો મળી આવ્યાનો અહેવાલ રજુ કર્યો છે. આ ડીપોઝીટ ૧૦૦૦ લાખ ટનની છે. અલબત્ત, તેણે એ સ્પષ્ટતા નથી કરી કે આ જથ્થાનો સ્ત્રોત (રીસોર્સીસ) છે કે પછી અનામત. પણ અમેરિકન જીઓલોજીકલ સર્વે કહે છે કે ચીન પાસે અત્યારે ૩૯૦૦૦ ટનની રીસોર્સીસ છે. યુએસજીએસ કહે છે કે અમેરિકા, ઓસ્ટ્રેલીયા, બોલિવિયા અને ચીલી પછી ચીન ચાંદી ઉત્પાદનમાં પાંચમાં નંબરે છે. ૫૬૦૦ ટન સાથે મેક્સિકો સૌથી મોટો ઉત્પાદક છે. પેરુમાં ૧.૨૦ લાખ ટનની રીઝર્વ છે. તા. ૯-૧-૨૦૧૮

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