અમેરિકન નેચરલ ગેસ વાયદાનો વાર્ષિક સરેરાશ ભાવ અંદાજ ૩.૧૨ ડોલર
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અમેરિકન નેચરલ ગેસ વાયદાનો વાર્ષિક સરેરાશ ભાવ અંદાજ ૩.૧૨ ડોલર

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નેચરલ ગેસ સ્ટોકમાંથી ઐતિહાસિક અમેરિકન ઉપાડ (વિડ્રોઅલ)ની તુલનાએ વધુ ઉપાડની શક્યતા જોતા ટૂંકાગાળામાં ભાવ ઉંચે જવા સંભવિત છે. આ દરમિયાન જો ઉત્પાદન ઘટ આવશે તો પણ ભાવને સપોર્ટ મળી રહેશે. પણ જો અમેરિકન હવામાન હળવું થઇ હુંફાળું બનશે તો, ભાવ દબાણમાં આવશે. અમેરિકન એનર્જી ઇન્ફોર્મેશન એડ્મીનીસ્ટ્રેશન (ઈઆઈએ) ૨૦૧૮ના સરેરાશ ભાવ ૩.૧૨ ડોલર પ્રતિ મીલીયન મેટ્રિક બ્રિટીશ થર્મલ યુનિટ રહેવાની આગાહી કરી છે. જ્યારે વર્લ્ડ બેન્કે આ આગાહી ૩.૧૦ ડોલરની કરી છે. ૨૦૧૮મા અમેરિકન માંગ વધશે તે સાથે જ નિકાસ માંગના ટેકાનો આશાવાદ સેવવામાં આવે છે.

ઈઆઈએ દ્વારા આ વર્ષે અમેરિકન ઉત્પાદન દૈનિક ૭૯.૭ અબજ ક્યુબીક ફૂટ અંદાજ્યુ છે, તે એવું માને છે કે વપરાશ દૈનિક ૭૬.૯ બીસીએફ રહેશે. આ ઘટના ભાવ પર નજીવી નકારાત્મક અસર પાડશે. પણ નિકાસ વૃદ્ધિ ઓવારસપ્લાયને દબાણમાં રાખશે. ગત સપ્તાહની ઈએઆઇની આવી નકારાત્મક કોમેન્ટને લીધે ભાવ સપ્તાહાંતે ૫.૪ ટકા ઘટીને ૨.૭૯ ડોલર સુધી ઘટી ગયા હતા. પણ બુધવારે ૨.૯૧ ડોલર હતા.

ગત સપ્તાહે ભલે અપેક્ષાથી ઓછો અમેરિકન વપરાશ રહ્યો, પણ કેટલાંક રોકાણકારો હવે એવું માનવા લાગ્યા છે કે જાન્યુઆરીની મધ્યથી ઠંડીનો પારો હળવો થશે, જે હોમ હિટીંગ માંગ ઘટાડશે. ભાવમાં આવા આંચકા છતાં જગતભરમાં ખાસ કરીને એશિયામાં ક્લીન એનર્જીની સતત વધતી લોકપ્રિયતા લાંબાગાળાના ફંડામેન્ટલ્સને મજબુત બનાવશે. ઈઆઈએ માને છે કે જાગતિક નેચરલ ગેસ માંગ ૨૦૧૫મા દૈનિક ૩૪૦ અબજ ક્યુબીક ફૂટ હતી તે ૨૦૪૦ સુધીમાં વધીને દૈનિક ૪૮૫ બીસીએફ થઇ જશે.

ચીનની આગેવાનીમાં કોલસા આધારિત ઉર્જાથી દુર થતા જતા એશિયન અને મિડલ ઇસ્ટના દેશોમાં ગ્રીન ઉર્જાની માંગ વધતી રહેશે. આ સાથેજ વિશ્વનો સૌથી મોટો કુદરતી ગેસ ઉત્પાદક અમેરિકા પણ આ વધતી માંગને પહોચી વળવા સજ્જ થઇ રહ્યો છે. ભાવ જ્યારે ૩ ડોલરનું પેટું તોડવા સંઘર્ષ કરી રહ્યા છે ત્યારે અમેરિકન કંપનીઓ જાગતિક બજારમાં સ્થાનિક કરતા પ્રમાણમાં ઊંચા ભાવે નેચરલ ગેસ વેચાણની ટકો જોઈ રહી છે. નજીકના ભવિષ્યમાં ૫૦ ટકા કરતા વધુ લિક્વિફાઇડ નેચરલ ગેસ (એલએનજી) વેપાર વોલ્યુમ નિકાસ બજાર માટે ઉપયોગી થતું જોવા મળશે.
પેરીસ સ્થિત ઇન્ટરનેશનલ એનર્જી એજન્સી (આઈઈએ) તો ત્યાં સુધી કહે છે કે ૨૦૨૨ સુધીમાં અમેરિકા તેના પ્રતિસ્પર્ધી ઓસ્ટ્રેલીયા અને કતારને વળતી લડત આપવા સજ્જ થઇ ગયું હશે. એલએનજીની વધતી માંગ અને નિકાસને બાજુએ રાખીએ તો પણ ઔધ્યોગિક પ્રોજેક્ટો કોલ બેઝ એનર્જી વાપરવાને બદલે નેચરલ ગેસ સ્ટોરેજ વધારશે, જે આખરે ભાવને ૩ ડોલરની ઉપર રાખવામાં સક્ષમ બની જશે. એસએન્ડપી ગ્લોબલ પ્લાત્સનાં તાજા સર્વે અનુસાર ૨૯ ડિસેમ્બરે પુરા થયેલા સપ્તાહમાં અમેરિકાના ૪૮ રાજ્યોમાં અન્ડરગ્રાઉન્ડ નેચરલ ગેસ સ્ટોરેજ ૨૦૬ અબજ ક્યુબીક ફૂટ હતો, જે ૨૧૯ બીસીએફ ધારણા કરતા ઓછો હતો.

અલબત્ત, સૂચિત સપ્તાહમાં આ ઘટાડો ગતવર્ષ કરતા ૭૨ બીસીએફ અને છેલ્લા પાંચ વર્ષ (૨૦૧૨-૧૬) કરતા વધુ હતો. ગત સપ્તાહનો ઘટાડો, ૨૦૧૭-૧૮ની શિયાળુ હિટીંગ મોસમના આરંભથી સતત સાતમાં સપ્તાહે ઘટાડો દાખવતો હતો. વર્તમાન અમેરિકન નેચરલ ગેસ સ્ટોરેજ લેવલ ૩.૧૨૬ ટ્રીલીયન ક્યુબીક ફૂટ છે, જે પાંચ વર્ષ અને ગતવર્ષની સરેરાશ કરતા ૧૯૨ અબજ ક્યુબીક ફૂટ (૫.૮ ટકા) ઓછો છે. તા. ૧૦-૧-૨૦૧૮

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