ટ્રમ્પનાં તઘલખી ફરમાને ટ્રેડ વોરને કરન્સી વોરમાં તબદીલ કરી નાખી
ચલણ

ટ્રમ્પનાં તઘલખી ફરમાને ટ્રેડ વોરને કરન્સી વોરમાં તબદીલ કરી નાખી

Tri Une Impex Consultant

બીજિંગ અને વોશિંગ્ટનથી શરુ થયેલી વર્તમાન જાગતિક ફાનાન્સીયલ સમસ્યાઓએ એક તરફ ઉભરતા અર્થતંત્રો, શેરબજાર, કોમોડીટી બજારથી લગાવીને ક્રુડ ઓઈલ સુધીની તમામ ચીજો માટે જોખમ તો ઉભું કર્યુ જ છે, સાથોસાથ ઘણાબધા દેશોના વિકાસ સામે પણ પડકારો ઉભા કર્યા છે. પ્રમુખ ટ્રમ્પનાં તાજા તઘલખી ફરમાનોએ ટ્રેડ વોરને, દૈનિક ૫.૧ ટ્રીલીયન ડોલરનાં સોદા પાડતી ફોરેકસ બજારને કરન્સી વોર સ્ટેજમાં તબદીલ કરી નાખી છે. જાગતિક વેપારનાં પરસ્પર સંબંધોમાં વ્યાપક પણે ખટાસ પેદા કરવામાં અને એક બીજા દેશો વચ્ચેના કરન્સી સહકાર સામે નવું જોખમ ઉભું થયું છે, એવું વોલ સ્ટ્રીટનાં આગેવાન કરન્સી સ્ટ્રેટેજીસ્ટ જેન્સ નોર્દ્વિંગ માની રહ્યા છે.

ચીન, યુરોપ અને અન્ય દેશોનાં કરન્સી વિશ્વમાં હવે પ્રશ્ન પુછાવા લાગ્યો છે કે ડોનાલ્ડ ટ્રમ્પ સામેના ટ્રેડ વોરમાં બીજીંગે બીજો મોરચો ખોલ્યો તેને લીધે જાગતિક કરન્સીમાં આવેલી નબળાઈ એ શું કરન્સી વોરમાં પરિવર્તન છે? ગત સપ્તાહે ટ્રમ્પએ ચીનથી આયાત થતી તમામ ૫૦૦ અબજની ચીજો પર જકાત નાખવાનો પુન:રુચ્ચાર કર્યો હતો. ટ્રમ્પએ એક ટ્વીટમાં કહ્યું હતું કે ચીન, યુરોપ અને અન્ય દેશો વ્યાજદર નીચા રાખીને કરન્સી સાથે અગનખેલ કરી રહ્યા છે.

જુન મહિનામાં જબ્બર ધોવાણ પછી ચીનની કરન્સી યુઆન અત્યાર સુધીમાં પાંચ ટકા કરતા વધુ ઘટી, બુધવારે એક ડોલર સામે ૬.૭૮૮ યુઆનના નવા તળિયે પહોચી ગયો હતો. બજાર આધારિત એક્સચેન્જ રેટમાં બદલાવ આવે તેવા સુધારા ચીન ઈચ્છે છે. શું આ અમેરિકાની ઈચ્છાઓ અનુસારનું નથી? એવો સવાલ ચાઈનીસ એકેડેમી ઓફ સોસ્યલ સાયન્સીસનાં ઈકોનોમિસ્ટ અને સરકારની સલાહકાર કમિટીમાં થીંક ટેંક મનાતા જહ્ન્ગ બિનએ કર્યો છે. ડોલર-યુઆન એક્સચેન્જ દરનો મુદ્દો છેલ્લા એક દાયકાથી અમેરિકા ચીનનાં આર્થિક સંબંધોનો મહત્વનો મુદ્દો રહ્યો છે.

૨૦૦૫મા ચીને યુઆન પરનો મજબુત ભરડો હળવો કરી નાખ્યા પછી ૨૦૧૪મા ૬.૦૩ યુઆનના ઓલ ટાઈમ હાઈ ટચ થવા અગાઉ યુઆન ૩૭ ટકા જેટલો મજબુત થયો હતો. જો ડોલર આજ પ્રકારે સતત મજબુત થતો રહેશે, તો કરન્સી ઇન્વેસ્ટરો મને છે કે ડોલર સામે યુઆનનું મુલ્ય ૭.૨૫ થઇ શકે છે. જો ડોલર સતત મજબુત થવાનું ચાલુ રાખે અને સોનાના ભાવ ૧૨૦૦ ડોલરની નીચે જાય, તો તેવી સ્થિતિમાં યુઆન ૭ ઉપર જાય તો કોઈને આશ્ચર્ય નહિ થવું જોઈએ. ઇન્વેસ્ટમેન્ટ એનાલીસ્ટો કહે છે કે આ ત્રણેય બાબતો એક બીજા સાથે મજબુત ગઠબંધન ધરાવે છે.

યુએસ ફેડરલ રીઝર્વ દ્વારા વધુ વ્યાજવૃદ્ધિની શક્યતા સાથે ચીનનાં નબળા પડતા અર્થતંત્રનું મિશ્રણ પણ યુઆન પર દબાણ વધારી રહ્યું છે, જેણે આ વર્ષનાં આરંભે ધરખમ પ્રતિકાર કરવાનો પ્રયાસ કર્યો હતો. આટલુજ નહિ ભારત સહિતના ઉભરતા અર્થતંત્રનાં કરન્સી બજારમાં પણ ડોલરે નવા પડકાર સર્જ્યા છે. પીપલ્સ બેંક ઓફ ચાઈનાએ ઇકોનોમીમાં ૭૨ અબજ ડોલરનું ફંડ ઠાલવવા સાથે અર્થતંત્રમાં રાહતના પગલાં ભર્યા તેને પગલે પણ યુઆનને નીચે જવા ફરજ પાડી હતી. નબળો યુઆન અન્ય એશિયન દેશોની કરન્સી માટે પણ ગેમ-ચેન્જર બની રહ્યો છે.

કેટલાંક કરન્સી એનાલીસ્ટ કહે છે કે અત્યારે બજારના ફોર્સને લીધે યુઆન નબળો પડી રહ્યો છે, તે પણ બીજિંગની ઈચ્છાનુસારની દિશામાં જ છે, જેથી તે ચીન માટે વેપાર ઝઘડાની વાટાઘાટોમાં લીવરેજ વધારવામાં ઉપયોગી સાબિત થઇ શકે. આર્થિક વિકાસની ચિંતાઓ સાથે જ જોખમી અસ્કયામતો અને ઓઇલના ભાવ વધુ ઘટી શકે છે, બાકીના એશિયન દેશોની કરન્સી વધુ ઘટવાનું શરુ કરે તે અગાઉ કોમોડીટી નિકાસકાર દેશોની કરન્સી ખાસ કરીને રશિયાન રુબલ, કોલમ્બિયન પેસો અને મલેશિયન રીંગીટમાં વધુ ગાબડા પડ્યા છે. તા. ૨૬-૭-૨૦૧૮

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