રોકડ પ્રવાહિતાના અભાવે સોનમાં મોટી ઉથલપાથલ સંભવિત
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રોકડ પ્રવાહિતાના અભાવે સોનમાં મોટી ઉથલપાથલ સંભવિત

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*ભારતીય રીફાઈનરોએ સોના પર ૧ ડોલરના ડિસ્કાઉન્ટથી આયાતકાર બેંકો સામે સ્પર્ધા તીવ્ર બનાવી


બુલિયન બજારમાં રોકડ પ્રવાહિતાના અભાવ વચ્ચે અમેરિકા અને યુરોપના સમર વેકેશનની રજાઓમાં હવે પછી સોનના ભાવમાં મોટી ઉથલપાથલ સંભવિત છે. પ્રવાહિતાના અભાવને, ટેકનીકલ ભાવ બ્રેક કરવાના જોખમ તરીકે જોવામાં આવે છે પણ ક્યારેક તે ઝડપી રીવર્સ સ્વીંગ પણ કરે છે. અમેરિકન ઈકોનોમી અને ડોલરની મજબૂતાઈએ સોનાની રોકાણ અપીલને સાવ મંદ પાડી દીધી હતી, પરિણામે સોનું ૧૨૦૫ ડોલરના મહત્વના બાઈંગ અપીલના લેવલે પહોચી ગયું હતું. ગત સપ્તાહે અમેરિકન રોજગારીના જુલાઈ આંકડા ધીમા પડ્યાના અને ચીને કરન્સીને ટેકો પૂરો પાડ્યાના અહેવાલે સોનામાં રાહતનો શ્વાસ લેવાતા મંગળવારે ભાવ ૧૨૨૩.૮૦ ડોલરની ઉંચાઈએ પહોચ્યો હતો.

મંદીવાળા સામે હવે લાલ ઝંડો ફરકાવાતા સોનાના ભાવ ૧૨૦૫ ડોલરથી બાઉન્સ થયા છે. અલબત્ત, બજાર પર હજુ મંદીવાળાનો મજબુત કબજો છે, તેઓ નેટ અને ગ્રોસ એમ બન્ને શોર્ટ પોઝીશન વિક્રમ ઊંચાઈ લઇ ગયા છે. હેજ ફંડો અને મની મેનેજરોએ ૩૧ જુલાઈએ પુરા થયેલા સપ્તાહમાં ૧૩,૯૩૧ લોટના નવા મંદીના ઓળિયા ખડકીને કુલ ઉભા ઓળિયા ૪૧,૦૮૭ કોન્ટ્રેકટનાં લેવલે લઇ ગયા હતા. ૨૦૦૬મા આવી ઓળિયા પોઝીશન જાહેર કરવાની પ્રથા શરુ થયા ત્યાર પછીના આ સૌથી વધુ ઓળિયા છે. ૧૧ એપ્રિલે સોનાએ ૧૩૬૫.૨૦ ડોલરની ઊંચાઈ સર કર્યા બાદ ભાવ સતત ડાઉનટ્રેન્ડ ઘટતા રહ્યા છે, શુક્રવારે ભાવ એપ્રિલ ઉંચાઈએથી ૧૧ ટકા ઘટીને ૧૬ મહિનાની તળિયે સ્થપાયા હતા.

એક ભારતીય બુલિયન ડીલરે કહ્યું કે જ્યારથી અમેરિકન રોકાણકારોએ એક્સચેન્જ ટ્રેડેડ ફંડમાંથી પોતાનું મહત્તમ રોકાણ પાછું ખેંચી લેવાનું શરુ કરતા છેલ્લા એક દાયકામાં સોનાની આવી નબળાઈ ક્યારેય જોવાઈ નથી. પ્રથમ અર્ધવાર્ષિકમાં સોનાની વેશ્વિક માંગ ૨૦૦૯ પછીની સૌથી ઓછી ૧૯૫૯ ટન રહી હતી જે ગતવર્ષે આ ગાળામાં ૨૦૮૬ ટન હતી, એમ વર્લ્ડ ગોલ્ડ કાઉન્સિલનું કહેવું છે. ભારતમાં રીફાઈનરી ઉદ્યોગને પ્રોત્સાહિત કરવા રીફાઇન્ડ સોનાની આયાત જકાત ૧૦ ટકા સામે કાચા સોના (ડોરે)ની ૦.૬૫ ટકા ઓછી કરવામાં આવી ત્યાર પછી ૨૦૧૮મા કાચા સોનાની આયાત વિક્રમ ઉંચાઈએ પહોચી છે.

ગોલ્ડ ડોરે (સોનાની ખાણો દ્વારા સેમી પ્યોર ધાતુ બહાર કાઢવામાં આવે છે, જેને ડોરે કહે છે) આયાત વધવા સાથે ભારતમાં રીફાઇન્ડ ગોલ્ડ સપ્લાય કરતી બેંકો જેપી મોર્ગન, આઈસીબીસી સ્ટાડર્ડ, સ્કોટીયાબેંક, યુબીએસ, એચએસબીસીનો બજાર હિસ્સો વેગથી ઘટી ગયો છે. બેન્કોની પડતર, રીફાઇનરો કરતા ઉંચી હોવાથી સોનાની આયાતમાં સ્પર્ધા વધુ મુશ્કેલ બની છે. આયાતકાર બેંક કરતા ભારતીય રીફાઈનરી, બુલિયન ડીલરોને ભાવમાં પ્રતિ ઔંસ (૩૧.૧૦૩૫ ગ્રામ) ૧ ડોલરનું ડિસ્કાઉન્ટ ઓફર કરે છે. એક ડોલર, સોદો ઉભો રાખવા કે તોડવામાં મહત્વની ભૂમિકા ભજવે છે. ૨૦૧૪ સુધી ભારતમાં કુલ સોનાની આયાતમાં ડોરે આયાતનો હિસ્સો માત્ર ૫.૬ ટકા હતો, જે ઓછી આયાત જકાતને લીધે છેલ્લા ત્રણ વર્ષમાં મોટાપાયે વધ્યો છે. આ વર્ષે ડોરે આયાત ૩૦૦ ટન વટાવી જવાની શક્યતા છે, જે ગતવર્ષે ૨૫૦.૬ ટન થઇ હતી.

ડબ્લ્યુજીસી કહે છે કે નબળા પડેલા રૂપિયાને લીધે સોનાની આયાત મોંઘી પડતી હોવાથી આ વર્ષે પ્રથમ છ માસમાં ભારતની સોનાની કુલ આયાત ગતવર્ષનાં સમાનગાળાથી ૩૮ ટકા ઘટીને ૩૧૧.૪ ટન થઇ હતી. સોનાના ભાવ ૧૬ મહિનાના તળિયે ગયા હોવાથી ભારતમાં આ વર્ષના ધાર્મિક તહેવારો અને લગ્નસરામાં સોનાની માંગનું આકર્ષણ વધતા બીજા છમાસિકમાં આયાત વધશે. તા. ૮-૮-૨૦૧૮

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