૨૦૧૯મા કૃષિ કોમોડીટી બજાર તેજીની ઘોડેસવારી કરશે
કૃષિ કોમોડિટી

૨૦૧૯મા કૃષિ કોમોડીટી બજાર તેજીની ઘોડેસવારી કરશે

Kotak Commodity Services Ltd

*પામ ઓઈલની ઓછી ઉપજ અને કોફી તેમજ ખાંડના પાકોને ભારે નુકશાન અને સોયાબીન વેપાર પ્રવાહ બદલાઈ જશે

*હવામાન ઘટનાઓ, ટ્રેડ વોર, કરન્સી અને પશુ રોગચાળો જેવી અનિશ્ચિતતાઓ કૃષિ કોમોડીટી બજારમાં ઉથલપાથલ સર્જશે


કૃષિ કોમોડીટીના ભાવ અત્યારે ભલે સ્થિર જણાતા હોય, પણ ૨૦૧૯મા જાગતિક અનાજ બજારની સ્થિરતા પર ચારે તરફથી ભાવ ઉથલપાથલનું જોખમ ખુબ વધી ગયું છે. રાબો બેંક તેના વાર્ષિક રીસર્ચ રીપોર્ટ “આઉટલુક ૨૦૧૯”મા કહે છે કે અલ-નીનોની વ્યાપક હવામાન બદલાવ ચેતવણી, ચીન-અમેરિકાની ટ્રેડ વોર, કરન્સી બજારમાં ઉથલપાથલ અને પશુ રોગચાળો આ બધા કારણો આગામી વર્ષે વૈશ્વિક અનાજ ભાવ પર મોટાપાયે અસર કરશે. રાબો બેન્કના એનાલીસ્ટોએ ૧૫ જેટલી કૃષિ કોમોડીટી, મટન, અને સીફૂડનાં સંયોગોનો વ્યાપક અભ્યાસ કરીને આ અહેવાલ તૈયાર કર્યો છે.

ફૂડ પ્રોસિંગ ઉદ્યોગ સામે તો મોટું જોખમ મોઢું ફાડીને ઉભું છે. શક્ય છે કે તમામ ઉદ્યોગો સામે આવું જોખમ ઉભું ન પણ થાય, પણ ૨૦૧૯મા તેમણે પણ આ મુશ્કેલ સમયમાં સાવધ રહેવું ફરજીયાત થઇ પડશે. અમેરીકાએ તો ટ્રેડ વોર સાથે મજબુત થતા ડોલરની બેવડી સમસ્યા સહન કરવી પડશે. જ્યારે બ્રાઝીલના ખેડૂતોના હાથમાં બન્ને તરફથી લાડવા છે. અમેરિકા ચીન વચ્ચે ૨૦૧૮ના આરંભથી જ ટ્રેડ વોર જામી પડી છે, જો ધારણા પ્રમાણે ૨૦૧૯મા આ વોર ચાલુ રહેશે તો આગામી વર્ષે અને ત્યાર પછી જગતના વેપાર પ્રવાહનો આખો ચહેરો જ બદલાઈ જવાનો છે. સૌથી વધુ માર સોયાબીનને પડવાનો છે. આખા વિશ્વનાં ૬૦ ટકા સોયાબીન આયાત વેપાર ચીન દ્વારા થાય છે, ચીનમાં આયાત અંકુશોને લીધે ૨૦૧૮-૧૯માં સોયાબીન આયાત ૯૬૦ લાખ ટનથી ઘટીને ૯૦૦ લાખ ટન કરતા પણ ઘટવાની સંભાવના છે.

જો ચીન અન્યત્રથી તેની અનાજ આયાત કરશે, તો અમેરિકન ખેડૂતો સામને સોયાબીન ઓવર સપ્લાયનું જોખમ વધી જશે, અને વર્ષાંત સુધીમાં તો તેમણે બમણા વિક્રમ સોયાબીન સ્ટોકને સંગ્રહવાની સમસ્યાનો સામનો કરવો પડશે. દરમિયાન બ્રાઝીલનાં પાકોને આકર્ષક ભાવ ઉપલબ્ધ થશે. આથી કહી શકાય કે જગતના સોયાબીન ખેડૂતોને ટ્રેડ વોરથી સૈધાંતિક લાભ થવાનો છે. પણ તેની વરવી બાજુએ પશુઆહાર ક્ષેત્ર માટે ખુબ ઊંચા ભાવ ચુકવવાની સ્થિતિ પેદા થશે. અમેરિકન ડોલર અત્યારે ૧૮ મહિનાની ઉંચાઈએ છે, ૨૦૧૯મા તે વધુ મજબુત થવાની શક્યતા છે. આથી વિદેશમાં અમેરિકન અનાજની સ્પર્ધાત્મકતા ઘટી જશે, પરિણામે તેના ખેડૂતો સામે વધુ નવા પડકાર ઉભા થશે.

ઉત્તર-ગોળાર્ધમાં શિયાળો ઉતરતા અલ-નીનો સ્થાપિત થવાની ૮૦ ટકા શક્યતાની આગાહી કરવામાં આવી છે, ત્યારે રાબોબેંક માને છે કે કૃષિ કોમોડીટી બજારમાં હવામાન ઘટનાઓ વધુ અનિશ્ચિતતાઓ સર્જશે. દક્ષિણ-પૂર્વ એશિયા અને બ્રાઝીલના અમુક હિસ્સામાં દુષ્કાળગ્રસ્ત હવામાન અને આર્જેન્ટીનામાં વધુ પડતો વરસાદ આવશે. અમેરિકાના દક્ષિણ મેદાની વિસ્તારમાં જ્યાં ઘઉં વધુ પાકે છે ત્યાં મોટો ફાલ આવશે. આવા હવામાનનો આખરી અંજામ પામ ઓઈલની ઓછી ઉપજ અને રોબસ્ટા કોફી તેમજ ખાંડના પાકોને ભારે નુકશાનીની ઘટનાઓ પણ શક્ય છે. આ બધું તબક્કાવાર હાલની ઓવર-સપ્લાય માર્કેટને રાહત આપશે, મજબુત કોફી અને ખાંડની જાગતિક માંગ ભાવને ઉપર રાખવામાં મદદરૂપ થશે.

ત્રણ એફ ફૂડ, ફીડ (પશુ આહાર) અને (બાયો) ફ્યુઅલની વધતી માંગ વિશ્વની અનાજ બજારને વધુ ખુલ્લી કરી નાખશે અને ભાવના વધુ આંચકાઓ સહન કરવાની તૈયારી રાખવી પડશે. ઉદાહરણ તરીકે જોઈએ તો ૨૦૦૭-૦૮મા ઓસ્ટ્રેલીયામાં દુષ્કાળ પડ્યો અને ઘઉંનો પાક પ્રમાણમાં નાનો આવ્યો, એવા એક માત્ર કારણસર જાગતિક અનાજ, ક્રુડ ઓઈલ અને પોલ્ટ્રી બજાર બોટમ આઉટ થઈને આસમાને ગઈ હતી. ત્યાર પછી સંખ્યાબંધ દેશોમાં ખોરાક માટે લોકો રસ્તા પર ઉતરી આવ્યા હતા. હવામાનમાં બદલાવ, અનાજ ઉત્પાદન અને લોકોના સામાજિક જીવનમાં પણ વ્યાપક પરિવર્તન લાવતા હોય છે. તા. ૨૧-૧૧-૨૦૧૮


Riddhi Siddhi Bullions Ltd

You can share this post!

RELATED NEWS

21 Comments

  • Balenciaga , May 11, 2020

    My husband and i got now lucky emmanuel managed to round up his research because of the ideas he came across using your blog. it is now and again perplexing to simply be giving for free hints which usually some other people may have been trying to sell. and we acknowledge we have the writer to give thanks to because of that. the type of illustrations you have made, the straightforward blog menu, the friendships you can give support to create - it's all sensational, and it is letting our son and the family imagine that the theme is awesome, and that is quite important. thanks for the whole thing!

  • Nike Air Vapormax , May 14, 2020

    I just wanted to send a small comment so as to thank you for all the marvelous ways you are giving out at this website. my prolonged internet research has finally been compensated with good quality information to share with my pals. i 'd admit that most of us site visitors actually are undoubtedly endowed to dwell in a notable website with so many brilliant individuals with insightful points. i feel rather blessed to have discovered the webpages and look forward to so many more entertaining times reading here. thanks once again for all the details.

  • Coach Outlet Store Online , May 20, 2020

    My husband and i have been absolutely fortunate jordan could complete his investigations because of the ideas he grabbed out of your site. it's not at all simplistic to simply possibly be freely giving facts which usually people might have been selling. and now we take into account we've got you to thank because of that. the type of illustrations you made, the easy site navigation, the relationships you can aid to promote - it's got many spectacular, and it is leading our son in addition to us recognize that the content is interesting, which is seriously serious. many thanks for the whole lot!

  • Yeezy Boost 350 , May 23, 2020

    I want to express thanks to this writer for bailing me out of this crisis. because of checking through the the net and coming across ideas which were not powerful, i thought my entire life was over. existing devoid of the approaches to the issues you've resolved through your short article is a critical case, and the kind that could have badly damaged my entire career if i had not noticed your site. the competence and kindness in controlling every item was very useful. i don't know what i would've done if i hadn't come upon such a stuff like this. i can at this point look forward to my future. thanks a lot so much for this professional and sensible guide. i will not think twice to propose your blog to any individual who wants and needs care on this subject.

  • Moncler Outlet , May 25, 2020

    Thank you a lot for giving everyone remarkably nice opportunity to read critical reviews from this site. it is often so pleasing and as well , stuffed with amusement for me and my office mates to visit your website at minimum thrice every week to read the newest guides you have got. and definitely, we're certainly amazed with all the outstanding creative ideas you serve. selected 4 areas in this posting are without a doubt the finest we've had.

  • Christian Louboutin Shoes , May 28, 2020

    I really wanted to write a quick comment to be able to say thanks to you for some of the unique tips and hints you are showing at this site. my time intensive internet look up has at the end of the day been paid with high-quality concept to talk about with my company. i would suppose that many of us website visitors are very lucky to exist in a really good place with many outstanding professionals with very helpful pointers. i feel somewhat blessed to have seen your webpage and look forward to plenty of more excellent times reading here. thank you once more for a lot of things.

  • Kevin Durant Shoes , May 30, 2020

    My wife and i felt very delighted that chris managed to conclude his inquiry through the ideas he discovered from your web page. it's not at all simplistic to just choose to be handing out secrets men and women could have been selling. and we all already know we've got you to thank because of that. these explanations you made, the easy web site menu, the friendships your site help engender - it is most extraordinary, and it's really helping our son in addition to our family understand the subject is pleasurable, and that is truly fundamental. many thanks for the whole lot!

  • Golden Goose Outlet , Jun 02, 2020

    I precisely desired to say thanks once more. i'm not certain the things that i would have undertaken without the type of suggestions discussed by you relating to this area. previously it was an absolute scary case for me personally, however , witnessing a new professional technique you dealt with it made me to jump with delight. i am just happy for your assistance and even trust you know what a powerful job you have been accomplishing educating the mediocre ones using your blog. more than likely you have never got to know all of us.

  • Jordan Retro , Jun 04, 2020

    I together with my pals were following the good helpful tips found on the blog and then all of a sudden i got an awful feeling i had not thanked the site owner for those tips. most of the young men came as a consequence warmed to read through all of them and have now seriously been tapping into these things. thank you for really being indeed helpful and also for utilizing some cool useful guides most people are really eager to be aware of. my very own sincere apologies for not expressing gratitude to you earlier.

  • Yeezy Boost 350 , Jun 06, 2020

    I simply wanted to thank you so much all over again. i am not sure what i could possibly have handled without the actual thoughts shown by you on this area of interest. this has been the intimidating difficulty in my view, but coming across the very skilled way you treated the issue forced me to weep over joy. i will be grateful for this guidance and then sincerely hope you comprehend what a powerful job you are putting in educating some other people using a site. i am sure you've never come across any of us.

  • Moncler Coat , Jun 08, 2020

    I actually wanted to post a brief message so as to express gratitude to you for the magnificent items you are sharing here. my time intensive internet investigation has now been honored with reputable facts and techniques to share with my two friends. i would mention that many of us site visitors are extremely fortunate to live in a really good website with many brilliant professionals with interesting points. i feel somewhat blessed to have come across your website page and look forward to many more enjoyable times reading here. thank you once more for all the details.

  • Kyrie 6 Shoes , Jun 10, 2020

    Thank you for your entire hard work on this web site. debby delights in doing research and it is simple to grasp why. many of us hear all regarding the compelling tactic you give effective ideas on the website and recommend response from website visitors on this article while our favorite girl is always becoming educated so much. take advantage of the remaining portion of the new year. you have been performing a tremendous job.

  • Golden Goose , Jun 16, 2020

    I wanted to put you one little observation to be able to thank you so much over again with your pretty strategies you have discussed in this article. this is simply shockingly generous with people like you to grant extensively exactly what numerous people might have supplied for an ebook to help make some cash for themselves, primarily since you might have done it if you ever wanted. those techniques additionally served like a great way to fully grasp that other people have similar keenness the same as my very own to learn a lot more with regard to this matter. certainly there are several more fun instances ahead for those who check out your website.

  • Timberland Boots , Jun 19, 2020

    I intended to post you this little observation to be able to thank you so much the moment again on the awesome strategies you have discussed on this website. it is so particularly open-handed with you to offer openly all most people would have advertised for an e-book in order to make some dough for their own end, primarily seeing that you might have tried it in case you wanted. those tactics as well served to provide a easy way to be certain that most people have a similar zeal just like my own to learn somewhat more with regards to this matter. i'm certain there are some more fun moments in the future for those who read your blog post.

  • Nike Air Max , Jun 23, 2020

    I must get across my love for your generosity supporting persons that require help with your idea. your personal commitment to passing the solution across had become quite significant and has in most cases allowed regular people like me to achieve their aims. your informative report implies a lot to me and far more to my fellow workers. many thanks; from all of us.

  • Jordan 11 , Jun 26, 2020

    I simply wanted to send a simple comment so as to express gratitude to you for all of the lovely secrets you are sharing at this site. my extensive internet research has finally been compensated with useful knowledge to write about with my good friends. i would repeat that we website visitors are extremely endowed to dwell in a perfect website with so many lovely professionals with good tips. i feel really blessed to have discovered the site and look forward to some more exciting moments reading here. thanks once more for all the details.

  • Kd 11 Shoes , Jun 29, 2020

    A lot of thanks for your whole labor on this site. my mother takes pleasure in conducting internet research and it's really simple to grasp why. many of us hear all of the powerful medium you deliver both interesting and useful tips and tricks via the blog and even inspire response from website visitors on this idea then our own princess is without a doubt studying so much. have fun with the rest of the new year. you're the one performing a really great job.

  • Supreme Clothing , Jul 02, 2020

    I needed to post you the very small observation just to give thanks once again regarding the pleasant things you have shared here. it has been simply unbelievably generous with you to grant unhampered what most people would've marketed for an e-book to make some dough on their own, certainly seeing that you might well have done it if you considered necessary. the good tips in addition served to be a fantastic way to recognize that the rest have similar keenness really like my very own to see a whole lot more regarding this matter. certainly there are many more pleasurable occasions ahead for folks who scan your blog post.

  • Hermes Bag , Jul 04, 2020

    I precisely desired to thank you so much once more. i do not know the things that i would have done in the absence of the tricks provided by you on such a industry. it truly was a real hard difficulty in my opinion, nevertheless spending time with the very specialised fashion you managed the issue made me to weep over happiness. i am just thankful for your help as well as have high hopes you really know what a powerful job you happen to be carrying out teaching many others using your websites. most probably you've never come across all of us.

  • Off White Hoodie , Jul 07, 2020

    I have to convey my appreciation for your kindness giving support to individuals who should have help on your issue. your real dedication to passing the solution across ended up being especially functional and have really empowered people much like me to attain their pursuits. the insightful guidelines denotes this much to me and even more to my office workers. thanks a ton; from everyone of us.

  • Supreme New York , Jul 10, 2020

    I truly wanted to make a quick remark to be able to express gratitude to you for those nice items you are sharing at this website. my prolonged internet lookup has now been compensated with high-quality facts to share with my colleagues. i would state that that many of us site visitors are extremely fortunate to exist in a useful place with very many outstanding individuals with insightful advice. i feel extremely lucky to have come across your entire web page and look forward to many more pleasurable times reading here. thanks once more for everything.

Leave Comments