મંદીવાળાઓએ ટૂંકાગાળા માટે સોના પરનું નિયંત્રણ ગુમાવી દીધું
સોનું

મંદીવાળાઓએ ટૂંકાગાળા માટે સોના પરનું નિયંત્રણ ગુમાવી દીધું

Lathia Rubber Mfg. Co. Pvt. Ltd

*બ્રિટનનું બ્રેક્ઝીટ સોનામાં લેવાલીનું આકર્ષણ વધારશે

*બજારનું ફોકસ ૨૦૧૯મા અમેરિકન વ્યાજદર વૃદ્ધિ બાબતના કેવાક સંકેત મળે છે તેના પર


ધીમા પડી રહેલા વૈશ્વિક અર્થતંત્રોના સંકેત મળવા લાગ્યા છે, વેપારીઓમાં ભય પ્રવર્તે છે, પરિણામે જોખમ સામે રક્ષણ મેળવવા રોકાણકારો સોનામાં રોકાણ કરવા પ્રેરાયાના અહેવાલો આવવા લાગ્યા છે. સોનાના ભાવ બાબતે અત્યારે સારા દિવસો ચાલી રહ્યા છે, સોમવારે ભાવ ૧૭ જુલાઈ પછી, પહેલી વખત ૧૨૫૬.૩૦ ડોલર ઇન્ટ્રાડેમાં બોલાયો હતો. આથી માધ્યમગાળાની તેજીની પ્રક્રિયા શરુ થયાનું કહેવાય છે. જાગતિક બજારમાં સર્જાયેલી અસમંજસતાને પગલે સલામત રોકાણ માંગ પણ વધી રહી છે. આ બધું લાંબાગાળે થયું છે, પણ આખરે સોનાના સારા દિવસો આવ્યા છે એમ કહી શકાય. નબળા શેરબજારો, અમેરિકન રોજગારી ઘટ્યાના સમાચાર આ બધાએ ગત સપ્તાહથી જ સોનામાં આકર્ષણ વધ્યાર્યું છે.

હવે તો વ્યાજદર વધારવા બાબતની નીતિમાં ખુબજ પાણી નાખવાની ફરજ પડે તેવી સ્થિતિમાં અમેરિકન ફેડરલ રીઝર્વ આવી ગયું છે, આ ઘટનાએ પણ સોનામાં રોકાણની અપીલમાં વધારો કર્યો છે. ગત સપ્તાહે સોનામાં બે ટકાનો સુધારો આવ્યો તે, નવ મહિના પછી બનેલી સાપ્તાહિક ઘટના હતી. આગામી ૧૮ અને ૧૯ ડિસેમ્બરે ફેડરલ રિઝર્વની બેઠકમાં વ્યાજદર વધારે તેવી સંભાવના છે. પણ બજારનું ફોકસ તો ૨૦૧૯મા વ્યાજદર વૃદ્ધિ બાબતના કેવાક સંકેત મળે છે, તેના પર છે. ડીસેમ્બરનાં વ્યાજદર વધારાને તો બજારે ડિસ્કાઉન્ટ કરી નાખ્યું હોઈ તેની ભાવ પર મોટી અસર હવે નહિ થાય. કેટલાંક ટ્રેડરો બજારનો દિશાદોર નીર્ધારવા ૨૦૧૯ના વ્યાજદર વધારાના ટાઈમિંગ તરફ નજર માંડીને બેઠા છે.

અમેરિકન ફેડના કેટલાંક પોલીસીમેકરોએ દેશના અર્થતંત્ર બાબતે ચિંતાનો સુર વ્યક્ત કર્યો છે, આ બાબત અમેરિકાની નાણાનીતિમાં બદલાવ લાવનારા પરિબળો પણ બની શકે છે. ચીન અને અમેરિકા વચ્ચેના વેપાર ઝઘડા, વેપાર સોદાઓની શક્યતાઓ નકારાત્મક બનાવી દેશે અને વૈશ્વિક અર્થતંત્રોને નબળા પાડી દેશે, એવી ચિંતાઓને લીધે જાગતિક શેરબજારોમાં વેચવાલી આગળ વધી રહી છે. રિદ્ધિસિદ્ધિ બુલીયનના સીઈઓ પૃથ્વીરાજ કોઠારી કહે છે કે સોનાએ ૧૨૪૫ ડોલરનું રેસિસ્ટન્સ લેવલ તોડી નાખ્યું છે તે સાથે ઉક્ત બાબતોને ધ્યાનમાં લઈએ તો ડીસેમ્બરમાં સોનાના ભાવ પ્રતિ ઔંસ (૩૧.૧૦૩૫ ગ્રામ) ૧૨૩૦થી ૧૨૮૫ ડોલરની વચ્ચે રહેવાની શક્યતા છે.

આગામી દિવસોમાં બ્રેક્ઝીટ પણ સોનાની તેજીને ટેકો આપી શકે છે. યુરોપીયન યુનિયન સાથે ડાયવોર્સ લેવા કે નહિ તે નક્કી કરવા ૧૧ ડિસેમ્બરે (આજે) બ્રિટીશ પાર્લામેન્ટની બેઠક મળશે. આમ બ્રિટીશ પાઉન્ડ પર દબાણ વધશે, જે સોનામાં લેવાલીનું આકર્ષણ વધારશે. આ ઘટના રોકાણકારોને સેફ હેવન સોનામાં વૈકલ્પિક રોકાણ કારવા આકર્ષિત કરશે. અલબત્ત સોનામાં હજુ પણ ટેક્નીકલી બેર માર્કેટ અંડરટોન પ્રવર્તે છે. સોનાના ભાવ હજુ પણ ટેકનીકલ રીતે ૨૦૦ દિવસની મુવિંગ એવરેજની નીચે પ્રવર્તી રહ્યા છે, જો તેમાંથી સોનું બહાર નીકળી જશે તો સોનાને નવેસરથી ટેકો મળવાની શક્યતા પણ એટલી જ છે.

૧૧ એપ્રિલે સોનાની ૧૩૬૫.૪૦ ડોલરની સાયક્લોજીક્લ ટ્રેન્ડ લાઈન તૂટી ત્યારે જ માધ્યમગાળાની બેર માર્કેટ નિશ્ચિત થઇ ગઈ હતી. ત્યાર પછીથી તળિયું સ્થાવાની પ્રક્રિયા ૧૬ ઓગસ્ટે ૧૧૬૭.૧૦ ડોલરના ભાવે આજ સુધી જળવાઈ રહી છે. એક ભારતીય બુલિયન એનાલિસ્ટે કહ્યું કે મંદીવાળાઓએ ૮ ઓકટોબરે ૧૧૮૮.૬૦ ડોલરના બોટમ ભાવથી મધ્યમગાળા માટેનું બજાર નિયંત્રણ ગુમાવી દીધું હતું. અહી એ નોંધવું જરૂરી ગણાશે કે જાન્યુઆરીથી ઓગસ્ટ દરમ્યાન બનેલા તળિયાના ભાવથી સોનું અત્યાર સુધીમાં ૭ ટકા વધ્યું છે. વધુમાં આ વર્ષે પહેલી વખત આખરી ત્રિમાસિકમાં સોનામાં ભાવ સુધારો જોવા મળ્યો છે, જે બજારનાં આંતરપ્રવાહમાં આવી રહેલા બદલાવનું પ્રતિનિધિત્વ પણ કરે છે. તા. ૧૧-૧૨-૨૦૧૮

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